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Armageddon: Here Is What Happens if North Korea Hit Seoul with a Nuclear Weapon

American and South Korean soldiers staring down North Korean troops at the 38th Parallel understand this quite well, as do the military strategists and planners in Washington whose job centers on mapping out every conceivable scenario during the beginning of a conflict. Indeed, the U.S. Army constructed an $11 billion base from scratch 40 miles south of Seoul for the very reason of getting U.S. troops out of North Korea’s line of fire.

Seoul is only 30 miles from North Korean artillery. An attack on the city with conventional munitions coming from Pyongyang would put the safety of everyone in the area at grave risk. With nearly half of South Korea’s population living within 50 miles of the DMZ, and with perhaps as many as 8,000 cannons and rocket launchers ready to fire on Kim’s orders, it’s not beyond the imagination to picture fatalities after a North Korean reprisal attack in the tens of thousands.

As a former senior U.S. Army adviser on the Korean Peninsula penned in Foreign Policy this September, “Even a small number of missiles fired into the city, targeting South Korea’s defense complex, will have a significant impact, as each warhead weighs between 500 and 1000 lbs. To put that in context, each would be enough to annihilate anything in one to two city blocks.”

This damage, however, would be an exponentially higher if Kim decided to deploy one of his nuclear devices in a last gambit to prevent a humiliating military defeat.

Due to Seoul’s population density, a single 250 kiloton nuclear strike on city hall would kill over 717,000 people—tens thousands of whom would likely be American civilians who live and work in the city. The outer perimeter of the radioactive fallout would extend over a four mile radius. Those who are about two and a half miles from the nuclear detonation would be either dead (within 1.1 miles from the impact zone), dying over the next few weeks (1.3–2.72 miles) or suffering internally from the pain of acute radiation poisoning (2.72–4.28 miles). Seoul, the city that powered South Korea’s “Asian Miracle” in the 1980s, would cease to be one of the economic engines of productivity and prosperity in Asia.

Would Kim Jong-un go all in and demolish Seoul in order to retaliate against an American attack? We won’t now until this bone chilling scenario converts from the hypothetical to the real. It’s a reality that none of us, not even Kim Jong-un, hope will happen in our lifetime.

Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities.

Image: Reuters

This first appeared late last year.